Idle Analytics» Math

Statisticians need to see how experimental science really works, then shut up about it

Reuben — Thu, 14 Nov 2013 04:46:34 +0000

This kind of irks me. The plague of non-reproducibility in science may be mostly due to scientists’ use of weak statistical tests, as shown by an innovative method developed by statistician Valen Johnson, at Texas A&M University in College Station. The article goes on to specify an amazing new Bayesian test the person invented which …

Jeopardy contestants don't know good game theory

Reuben — Thu, 03 Oct 2013 19:02:09 +0000

Two things demonstrate to me that Jeopardy contestants don't understand rudimentary game theory. Case 1: In many cases you have a score where one person is way ahead, and the other two trail by an amount so that it's a "run-away", meaning that even if the second place contestant bet the maximum amount in final …

Hollywood's box office debacle this summer is not hard to understand

Reuben — Fri, 26 Jul 2013 17:29:42 +0000

Via Slashdot: In the weeks since Spielberg’s prediction, six wannabe blockbusters have cratered at the North American box office: “R.I.P.D.,” “Turbo,” “After Earth,” “White House Down,” “Pacific Rim,” and “The Lone Ranger.” These films featured big stars, bigger explosions, and top-notch special effects—exactly the sort of summer spectacle that ordinarily assures a solid run at …

Calling Republicans the party of racism is questionable

Reuben — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 20:13:23 +0000

Bill Maher is fond of repeating his line: "Being a Republican doesn't make you a racist, but if you're a racist you're probably a Republican." This attitude has obvious anecdotal examples to support it. The numerous racist signs shown at Tea Party rallies, the incredibly low minority support for and participation in the GOP, things …

Understanding polls (part 2)

Reuben — Mon, 15 Oct 2012 05:03:13 +0000

In a previous installment, I showed the results of sampling a population to determine some fact: In that case, it was a hypothetical measurement of the number supporting Obama. By taking 50 "people" at random in the set and tabulating their responses, one gets a rough estimate of the actual proportion of the population who …

Strange things in conditional probability

Reuben — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 05:41:29 +0000

A test for cancer is positive 99% of the time that a patient actually has cancer, and is negative 95% of the time a patient does not have cancer (suppose only 1/1000 in the population has this type of cancer). Question: if a patient's test comes up positive, what is the probability he has cancer? …